Lots of bad news this week as 2nd Quarter GDP data has been released, showing how bad COVID-19 has impacted economies around the globe. The US shrank by 34.7% in the second quarter, erasing five years of job growth. This is in addition to 40% of Americans facing eviction starting tomorrow.
In Europe, Germany GDP fell 10.1%, France fell 13.8%, Italy fell 12.4%, and Spain has taken the hardest hit to 2nd Quarter GDP, falling 18.5%
Elsewhere, spikes in new Coronavirus cases continue to knock countries off track. With no new cases or deaths in the last 100 days, Vietnam has been hit by a COVID-19 resurgence, and their e-commerce is barely performing above 0% growth.
Welcome to the CCInsight project where we track how COVID-19 impacts consumer spending around the world. Here are some of the top e-commerce trends we’ve spotted over the past seven days.
Revenue from Retail Online in Spain Plunges as Coronavirus Cases Spike
Spain’s retailers are having a tough time. This week retail e-commerce was further devastated over the last few weeks as retail online revenue fell from 106% on July 13th to -1% on July 25th:
The massive decline in growth is caused by a rise in new COVID-19 cases from 7,179 in the two-week period before July 13th to 17,417 by July 15th.
Alex Timlin, senior vice president of verticals at Emarsys, advises caution: “As if the Spanish economy didn’t need any more bad news, Coronavirus has dealt a double hammer blow to the tourism and online retail sectors. It remains to be seen whether these trends are the start of something more serious, and we will be monitoring the impact of a second wave on e-commerce across the world very closely in the weeks to come.”
UK Consumer Confidence in Question as 42% of Brits Do Not Plan to Use Government Restaurant Vouchers
A government restaurant voucher initiative is set to go into effect this coming Monday in the UK. The idea is to get consumers to start spending in the heavily impacted dining industry.
But a recent survey of 2,000 British citizens shows that while 58% said they’ll use these vouchers, 42% say they will not. Worse, 24% say they haven’t even heard of the initiative.
The Eat Out To Help Out Initiative is designed to bring business to the stricken restaurant industry, still reeling from lockdown, by giving consumers a 50% discount at participating restaurants between August 3rd and the 31st.
The relative lack of interest in the initiative may be a sign of low consumer confidence in the retail industry, which has seen the average order value (AOV) of online purchases plummet since mid-June:
Alex Timlin, SVP Verticals at Emarsys, believes the data may be forecasting further declines: “With signs of a second wave beginning to take hold around Europe, UK consumers are clearly worried about going to places that risk them coming into contact with lots of other people. Moreover, as average order values show at the moment, they’re tightening their belts in preparation for more potential financial hardship.”
French Retail E-Commerce Falling Despite Shift to Online Purchasing
Earlier this month, the French retailer Tati closed the last of their remaining stores for good. Many believe this is a symptom of a permanent consumer shift to online-only.
Despite spikes on March 15th and June 7th, the dips are getting deeper, and at the end of this week, French retail e-commerce is starting to fall again. Clearly retailers need to expand their omnichannel online business.
Data Insights for the Week
The top five pure players in the Americas are struggling with AOV growth, with only the top four above 0%. Except for Ecuador with just incredible YoY growth rates, only the top three countries are above 0%.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
Overall, Europe’s pure e-commerce is much stronger than the Americas and steadier than APAC. Retail e-commerce AOV is pretty comparable to Europe’s pure players.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
Pure e-commerce AOV growth in APAC is better this week overall than the Americas, and Japan has the best growth rate in the world. However, retail online is significantly lower than the pure players.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
Top Product Trends of This Week
Key Product Trend Insights: Fitness equipment remains a high performer with skipping rope more than doubling in uplift over the last week. Home improvement products also continue to do well.
Growth Rate of Online Transactions
Today is the last day for unemployment benefits in the US, and starting tomorrow, rent will be due for millions of Americans who are out of work. Still though, e-commerce is growing year-over-year, but we are seeing lower AOV rates this week.
Trends by Region
Pure e-commerce: APAC AOV growth has been very steady the last two weeks averaging around 5% YoY, but Europe has been on an upward arc in the same time ending the week about 5% higher than APAC. The Americas are at the bottom, really struggling for positive YoY AOV growth.
Retail online: APAC has led most of the past two weeks in YoY AOV growth, as high as +8% on July 20th, but the Americas overtook APAC the last few days to end at +4%. The worst region is Europe, which has remained on a steady negative path the last two weeks, ending this week at -16% YoY.
Trends by Country
Pure e-commerce: Only the top four countries in the Americas have AOV growth above 0% YoY. Argentina has remained #1 for the last month with +52% YoY (+25% in the last month), followed by other South American countries: Peru at +27% YoY (+27% in the last month, rising up from the #5 position), Colombia at +24% (+6% in the last month), and Chile at +4% (+14% in the last month).
The rest of the region is hurting despite growth in the last four weeks, with the Dominican Republic up +8.5% (-5% YoY), Brazil up +4% (-7% YoY), and Mexico up 23% (-12% YoY). Though not as low as Mexico, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, the United States is down -10% YoY in AOV growth.
European pure e-commerce has performed better over the last month, and this week the region has the best overall AOV growth YoY. The top five countries have all seen upward growth over the last month with the Czech Republic up +16% (+54% YoY), Estonia up +26% (+47% YoY), Spain up +78% (+47% YoY, despite steep declines in retail e-commerce), Denmark up +19% (+34% YoY), and France up +55% (+33% YoY).
Pure e-commerce AOV growth in APAC has mostly been improving over the last four weeks, with Japan on top after a huge turnaround, gaining +157% in the last month to end the week at +79% YoY.
Only the top eight countries are above 0% YoY as follows: The Philippines at +41% YoY (+63% in the last month, a big shift into positive growth), South Korea at +40% YoY (+67% in the last month), China at +30% YoY (-6% in the last month), New Zealand at +10% YoY (+2% in the last month), Australia at +9% YoY (+7% in the last month), India at +8% YoY (all gained in the last month), and Vietnam at +6% YoY (+10% in the last month).
Retail online: In the Americas, Ecuador remains on top with 144% AOV growth YoY, growing +61% in the last month and 131% higher than second place Mexico at +13% YoY (+1% in the last month).
The rest of the region’s retail e-commerce is hurting with Brazil at +3% YoY (-96% in the last month), the United States at -0.84% YoY (only +5% in the last month), Canada at -1% YoY (-8% in the last month), Peru at -33% YoY (-9% in the last month), and Colombia way down at -68% YoY (-6% in the last month).
Retail online AOV growth in Europe is still led by Romania with +75% YoY (+27% in the last month), followed by Turkey at +54% YoY (+52% in the last month), Croatia at 49% YoY (+4% and in the top five for the last month), Czech Republic at +33% YoY (+25% in the last month), Slovenia at +33% (+20% in the last month and making its first appearance in the top five since the pandemic began), Germany at +20% YoY (+15% in the last month), Italy at +4% YoY (+29% in the last month), Spain at -34% YoY (+12% in the last month), and the UK really having a hard time at -39% YoY, despite rising +6% in the last month.
Overall APAC retail online AOV growth is much better than the region has experienced in previous months with China on top at +37% YoY (with a massive +121% in the last four weeks).
The other countries with positive AOV growth are India with +24% YoY (+23% in the last month), South Korea with +7% YoY (-63% in the last month), Japan with +4% YoY (+11% in the last four weeks), Australia with +3% YoY (a steady +1% in the last month), Taiwan with +0.78% (-10% in the last month), New Zealand with +0.24% (-10% in the last month), and Vietnam with +0.06% (+19% in the last months).